How to calculate hotel market share from province and district overnight stays

Divide your hotel's overnight stays for a calendar year by the overnight stays the Ministry of Culture and Tourism reports for your district in the same year, and do it twice: once for foreign guests, once for domestic. Then compare that share with your share of certified beds. The result is a direction, not a score.

You know your own occupancy to the decimal. What you do not know is whether the district around you had a good year, and whether you took share from it or simply rode the same wave. This article shows a hotel market share calculation you can do once a year for free, using the Ministry's published district totals and nothing but your own night count. You will finish with two numbers, a gap between them, and a clear sense of what the numbers can and cannot tell you.

Why does a small hotel need a market share figure at all?#

Because your own numbers cannot tell you whether a weak month was your problem or the district's. A denominator turns your figures into a position.

The figure answers two questions: did the district grow, and did I grow with it? Everything else is interpretation. It does not answer whether you are priced correctly, whether guests like you, or whether your restaurant earns its keep. Those questions need a competitive set you define yourself, which is a separate exercise covered in our guide to how to choose a competitive set and compare rates fairly.

This is not an index measure. Index measures compare you with a named set of rivals and require a subscription report built on that named competitive set; this method uses a published aggregate instead. The cost is one yearly file and one count from your own system. Half a day, once a year.

The method uses published district totals only. It never requires you to obtain or exchange another hotel's sales figures, and you should not try. Treat the output as a review tool for the year that closed, not as an operating dashboard for the week ahead.

What does the Ministry's province and district table actually contain?#

For each province and district it gives facility arrivals, overnight stays, average length of stay and occupancy rate, each split into foreign and domestic guests, covering facilities that hold an operation certificate or a simple-accommodation certificate. The 2025 yearly bulletin of certified accommodation statistics (opens in a new tab) from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism's General Directorate of Investment and Establishments (2025) is the source.

Coverage is the first thing to read: the table counts certified facilities only. Beds outside the certification system are not in the denominator, so your share is a share of the certified market, not of every bed in the district.

The scale check for 2025: Türkiye recorded 98,981,217 arrivals and 252,323,483 overnight stays at a 49.54% occupancy rate; Antalya recorded 111,340,634 overnight stays at 66.31%, İstanbul 40,105,289 at 53.50% and Muğla 24,669,490 at 49.99% (Ministry of Culture and Tourism, 2025 yearly bulletin of certified accommodation statistics). The same file carries separate sheets by facility type and class for Ankara, Antalya, Aydın, İstanbul, İzmir and Muğla. If your district sits in one of those six provinces, you can see whether your segment or your district moved.

The bulletin does not state how the occupancy column is defined, so do not present it as hotel occupancy. The table is yearly, which is a feature for this calculation: a full calendar year on both sides of the division removes seasonality from the comparison.

Public data. No endorsement implied. For more on the wider data landscape, see our guide to province-level tourism data in Türkiye and how to read it.

Step 1: how do I turn my own nights into a share of the district?#

Divide your own overnight stays for the calendar year by the district's overnight stays for the same year, then repeat the division with only foreign guests on both sides, and again with only domestic guests.

Use nights, not arrivals. Arrivals count people; nights count the business you actually sold, and they are the unit the Ministry publishes. Match the period exactly: 1 January to 31 December, the same year on both sides of the division.

Match the guest split too. The table separates foreign from domestic guests, so write down the rule you use for your own guests and keep it identical next year, otherwise the comparison breaks. Take the numerator from your own records, not from memory: a night count by guest origin for the full year. Keep the denominator fixed to one edition of one bulletin; mixing a 2025 district figure with a 2024 hotel figure produces a number that means nothing.

Run a sanity check: your share cannot exceed the district total. If it does, you have a period mismatch, a definition mismatch, or you are counting a second property in the same figure. Write the formula, the year and the source on the same page as the result, so that anyone reading it later can repeat the division.

The numerator has to come from your own system. AI Otel's hotel operating system keeps reservations, front desk, housekeeping, billing, restaurant sales, reports and compliance in one place; it is built and working, ahead of launch, with 150+ built-in reports (June 2026).

Step 2: how do I compare that with my share of beds?#

Divide your bed count by the certified beds published for your district, then read the gap between your night share and your bed share.

Beds by district are not published in the approved figures. The national stock is given in rooms: 8,768 operation-certified facilities with 596,643 rooms and 455 investment-certified facilities with 54,434 rooms (Ministry of Culture and Tourism, certified accommodation statistics, August 2026, provisional). District-level rows exist in the facility statistics bulletin for operation-certified facilities, but simple-accommodation beds are only published at the province level. If you need a district denominator, use rooms, and label it as rooms rather than beds.

Simple-accommodation certificates appear only by province: 12,385 facilities and 277,561 rooms (same source). Bed counts for this category are not in the approved figures, so do not present a bed total for it. In a district with many such rooms, your bed denominator is incomplete, and you must say so.

Read the gap, not the level. Night share above bed share means you fill more than your size suggests; night share below bed share means you carry capacity you are not filling. Bed share is capacity, not quality: a renovated hotel and a tired one count the same bed, so the gap mixes size, condition and demand in one number. If your segment is only published at province level, do the comparison at province level and label it as such rather than inventing a district figure.

For example, an invented hotel in an invented district:

Every figure in the table above is invented for illustration and is not a benchmark.

What are the limits of a market share calculated this way?#

It is a direction, not a score: the denominator is partly estimated, covers certified facilities only, and can move because of one large opening.

Non-reporters are estimated. Certified facilities enter each month's data between the 1st and the 10th of the following month, and the Ministry estimates missing figures by applying the occupancy rate of comparable facilities grouped by province, district and bed-size band (Ministry of Culture and Tourism, accommodation statistics metadata, 23 December 2024). Certified facilities only: unregistered beds and out-of-scope accommodation are absent from the denominator, so the result describes the certified market.

Small districts are noisy. If you are one of five facilities, your own good or bad year visibly moves the district total, and the share partly measures you against yourself. The bulletin does not state how the occupancy column is defined, and no room-based rate is published, so never convert it into a room occupancy figure or present it as hotel occupancy. Treat the definition as a caveat and do not build an argument on it.

The two bulletins do not cover the same population: the nights table covers operation and simple-accommodation certificates, while beds by district cover tourism-certified facilities only. The two shares are therefore close, not identical. The yearly file arrives well after the year ends. It reviews the past; it does not steer the current season.

Should I compare with my neighbors or with last year?#

With last year. You cannot see your neighbors' numbers, and the district total changes whenever supply is added or a facility leaves certification.

The change in your share is the signal; the level is context. For example, a share of 3.6% means little until you know it was 3.1% a year earlier. A large new facility raises the district denominator and lowers your share even if you sold exactly the same number of nights. Check the facility statistics bulletin for supply changes before you interpret a fall. A facility leaving the certification system does the reverse, and your share rises without any commercial effort on your side.

Use the same bulletin edition and the same definitions each year. A definition change between editions is not a market event. For a within-year view, build a seasonality index from your own twelve months, as described in how to build a seasonality index from your own months, and keep the yearly share as the annual check. Never compare your share with a share you inferred for a neighboring hotel: you cannot see their nights, and an inferred figure will be wrong in the direction that flatters or frightens you.

What should I do with the result?#

Ask three questions in order and let the answers choose the action. Do not turn the number into a target percentage.

Question one: is my night share above or below my bed share, and did that gap widen or narrow since last year? Question two: is the gap different for foreign and domestic guests? A hotel can be strong in its domestic market and almost absent internationally, and the two halves of the table show it. Question three: did the district grow, and did I grow faster or slower than it? A falling share in a growing district is a different problem from a falling share in a shrinking one.

Night share below bed share points to demand and channel questions before it points to a rate cut: which segments are not finding you, and through which channels do they book. Night share above bed share points to a rate and capacity question: you are filling more than your size suggests, and the next lever is price or room mix, not more volume. Record the result with its formula, year, source and caveats, so that next year's comparison is honest and repeatable. Do not set a target share: the figure describes a closed year and depends on a denominator you do not control.

The action follows the answers, not a target. For the rate-side measures that need a competitive set report, see MPI, ARI and RGI explained, and why they need a competitive set report.

What to do next#

Open the Ministry's 2025 yearly bulletin, find your district row, and write your own night count beside it before the month ends. The parts fit together as one annual routine: your nights over the district's nights, your beds over the district's beds, the gap between the two, read against last year, with the limits written next to the result so nobody later mistakes a direction for a score.

If you want a system that keeps the numerator side of this calculation in one place, AI Otel's hotel operating system is built and working, ahead of launch. You can request a briefing to see what it covers.