Survey of Market Participants: reading inflation and exchange-rate expectations for a hotel budget

The Survey of Market Participants is the Turkish central bank's monthly poll of financial and real-sector decision-makers, published as an average expectation for inflation, the dollar rate and other variables. A hotel budget can cite one dated edition, for example October 2026, as a sourced assumption: never a promise, and never the bank's own forecast.

The budget meeting stalls on one line: what dollar rate to write down. One person remembers 50, another remembers 60, and the argument is about memory rather than evidence. There is a dated, published figure the owner can argue with instead. After reading this, you will know who answers the TCMB Survey of Market Participants, which four lines a hotel budget actually uses, and how to write one cited assumption per line so the debate moves from feelings to sources.

What is the TCMB Survey of Market Participants?#

It is the Turkish central bank's monthly poll of how decision-makers in the financial and real sectors expect inflation, the dollar rate, interest rates and growth to move. Its stated purpose, in the central bank's own metadata (opens in a new tab), is to track the expectations of decision-makers and experts in the financial and real sectors about macroeconomic variables.

The panel is a non-probability sample of selected participants, and participation is voluntary. A non-probability sample means the panel is chosen rather than drawn at random, so read the result as the view of this group, not of every business in Türkiye. The October 2026 edition was answered by 71 participants: 54 from the financial sector, of which 30 were banks and 24 non-bank financial institutions, and 17 from the real sector.

Mechanically, responses are collected over three days in the second or third week of the month on the central bank's website, and the aggregate is published on the second business day after collection ends. Results are given as an "appropriate average" and published both as a report and as time series in EVDS, the central bank's electronic data system.

The survey has run since August 2001, with comparable series starting in 2013. Results are not revised and not seasonally adjusted, so a figure you copied last month stays the figure you copied. And it is not the central bank's own forecast and not a commitment by anyone: it is what this panel expected on those three days. For the wider picture of Türkiye's tourism economy and official statistics, this series is one of several sources worth knowing.

What does the survey ask, and which lines does a hotel budget use?#

It asks a fixed list of variables at fixed horizons, and a hotel budget usually needs four of them: year-end and twelve-month-ahead consumer inflation, and year-end and twelve-month-ahead USD/TRY.

On inflation, the survey asks for monthly figures for the current month and the next two months, and annual figures for the current year-end, twelve months ahead, next year-end, 24 months ahead and five years ahead, plus probability distributions for 12 and 24 months ahead. On the dollar, it asks for interbank USD/TRY at the current month-end, the current year-end and twelve months ahead. Other lines cover the current account balance and GDP growth for the current and next year, the BIST repo overnight rate at the current month-end, and the policy rate at the next three monetary policy meetings and further out.

Match the horizon to the budget line. A calendar-year budget needs the year-end figure; a rolling twelve-month revenue line needs the twelve-month-ahead figure. Mixing horizons on one sheet is an easy error to make, and it hides which line the figure belongs to.

The survey contains no cost breakdown: no wage line, no energy line, no linen line. It is a general price index expectation, not a hotel's cost basket. It also says nothing about tourism demand, competitor rates or your own occupancy. Those come from your own numbers and from tourism statistics, not from this release.

Which four lines a budget note usually needs#

What did the October 2026 edition show?#

Collected from 12 to 14 October 2026, it put consumer inflation at 29.63% for end-2026 and USD/TRY at 51.55 for the same date, with 23.89% and 59.26 respectively twelve months ahead. All figures below are from the October 2026 survey report (opens in a new tab).

On inflation: 29.63% at end-2026 (previous edition 29.61%), 23.89% twelve months ahead (23.70%) and 17.94% 24 months ahead (18.32%). On the dollar: USD/TRY at 51.55 for end-2026 (51.57), 59.26 twelve months ahead (58.60) and 49.80 for end-October 2026. Other lines showed GDP growth of 2.9% for 2026 (3.0%) and 3.9% for 2027, and a policy rate expectation of 36.00% for the October meeting.

Read the brackets, not just the headline. A two-hundredths-of-a-point move in the year-end inflation line over one month is noise; the twelve-month dollar line moving from 58.60 to 59.26 is a visible shift in the panel's view. One piece of arithmetic on the survey's own two dollar figures: 51.55 rising to 59.26 over twelve months is about 15%. That is what the panel's average implies, not a forecast of ours, and no one is bound by it.

When does the survey come out, and which edition should a budget use?#

Collection runs over three days in the second or third week of each month and results appear on the second business day after it closes, so a budget signed in late November should cite the October or November edition, whichever is the latest published before sign-off.

Work from the rule, not from a remembered calendar date. The window moves between the second and third week, so the publication day moves with it. Check the release each month rather than assuming a fixed day. For a November sign-off, the October edition is safely out; the November edition may land before or after your pack goes to the owner, depending on where the three-day window falls. For a December sign-off, the November edition is the safe latest; the December edition usually arrives too late for the document the owner signs.

Write the edition month and the collection dates in the note, not just "central bank survey". A reader a year later must be able to find the exact release you used. Keep to one edition per budget note: if a line genuinely comes from a different edition, say so on that line rather than blending two releases into one figure. The next Inflation Report, 2026-IV, is due on 12 November 2026, so a November budget can carry both a survey edition and the central bank's own forecast from the same month.

How do you put one dated, cited figure into the budget note?#

One line per assumption, each carrying the figure, the horizon, the edition month, the collection dates and the publisher, written as an expectation rather than a prediction.

Use a fixed sentence shape: "USD/TRY, twelve months ahead (October 2027): 59.26. TCMB, Survey of Market Participants, October 2026 edition, collected 12 to 14 October 2026." Everything a reader needs is in one line. Write "expectation" or "assumption", never "will be"; the note's job is to show where the number came from, not to predict the future.

Put the previous edition's figure beside it, so the owner sees whether the panel moved and by how much. Two editions are enough; a table of twelve is noise. Keep the sourced figure and the scenario sheet apart: the survey figure is the citation for the base case, and the pessimistic and optimistic cases are the budget team's own and must be labelled as such.

Do not derive a room rate, a price increase or a revenue target from the figure. The survey says nothing about hotel prices or demand, and a macro expectation is not pricing evidence. Keep it short enough that the owner actually reads it: four lines, one per assumption, beat a page of commentary. If you are still building the pack itself, start from building next year's hotel budget month by month.

How do the Inflation Report and the Medium-Term Program differ from the survey?#

They are three different documents by two institutions: the survey reports what a panel expects, the Inflation Report states the central bank's own forecast, and the Medium-Term Program states the official program figures.

The Inflation Report 2026-III, published 13 August 2026, forecast inflation at 28% at end-2026 (raised from 26%), 15% at end-2027 and 9% at end-2028, then stabilising at the 5% target in the medium term, with interim targets of 24%, 15% and 9% for 2026 to 2028. The report published no forecast range: the central bank stopped sharing the range in the previous report, 2026-II, and kept to that in 2026-III, describing the main risks in words instead. A budget note cannot cite a current range that does not exist.

The Medium-Term Program 2027-2029, approved by Presidential Decision No. 11752 (Resmî Gazete, 6 September 2026, No. 33362, repeat issue), put year-end CPI at 30.9% for 2025 as actual, 28.4% for 2026 as a realisation estimate, then 21.0% for 2027, 13.5% for 2028 and 9.0% for 2029. These figures come from the TCMB's Inflation Report 2026-III (opens in a new tab) and the program's own tables.

Three figures for 2026, 29.63%, 28% and 28.4%, can all be correct at once: different authors, different dates in October, August and September, and different purposes. A survey average, a central bank forecast and a program figure are not rival answers to one question. Choose by purpose and say which you chose: the survey for a market expectation, the Inflation Report for the central bank's own view, the program for the official figure your bank or auditor may ask about.

What do you do when the year turns out differently?#

Re-read the latest edition each month, compare it with the assumption written in the budget, and explain the gap in the variance note rather than quietly rewriting the budget.

The survey is monthly, so the assumption can be checked twelve times a year without a new research project. That is the practical value of a monthly series over an annual forecast. Keep the original edition in the note: a budget that silently updates its own assumption cannot be audited and cannot teach anyone anything.

Explain the gap in words. Was it the exchange rate, the volume of business, or the hotel's own cost basket? Those are three different conversations with the owner. Your cost basket is not the consumer price index: wages, energy, food and linens move on their own contracts and seasons, so a general index expectation is a reference point, not your cost inflation. For the mechanics of that conversation, see reading the monthly budget versus actual variance, and for what the official price data actually covers, what the accommodation index in Türkiye's inflation data measures.

This article gives no hedging, borrowing or pricing advice. Those decisions belong to a treasurer and a commercial team, with their own evidence. Know the limit: the survey cannot tell you tourism demand, your competitors' rates or your occupancy. It is a macro expectations series, and it is honest about being one.

What to do next#

Before the next budget meeting, open the latest edition of the survey, copy four lines into the note with the edition month and the collection dates, and bring that page instead of a remembered number. The sequence is simple: know who answers and what they are asked, pick the edition that is out before sign-off, cite it line by line as an expectation, keep the central bank's own forecast and the official program beside it as separate documents, and revisit the figure each month with an explanation rather than a rewrite.