TÜİK's services production index: what the accommodation and food line shows

TÜİK's services production index (hizmet üretim endeksi, 2021=100) measures the monthly volume of services output with price effects removed. It covers six service sections, including accommodation and food services, which rose 2.0% on the year in August 2026 (TÜİK, Hizmet Üretim Endeksi, Ağustos 2026, 15 October 2026).

A bank's market paragraph or an owner report usually needs one sentence about how the accommodation sector is doing. The monthly release that carries that sentence arrives in the middle of the following month, and most hoteliers never open it. After reading this you will know what the services production index in Türkiye measures, where the accommodation and food line sits inside it, which comparison to quote, and the one check worth doing against your own numbers.

What does the services production index measure?#

It measures how much service output the economy produced in a month with price changes taken out, so a rise means more activity, not higher prices.

TÜİK collects turnover from enterprises and deflates it, so the published number is a quantity index with a base of 2021=100. The frame is wide: the index includes all enterprises that file VAT return No. 1 (KDV beyannamesi) with the Revenue Administration, which is a much larger group than a panel of hotels.

Deflation happens at four-digit activity level. According to TÜİK's Hizmet Üretim Endeksi metadata (2026), 94.1% of it uses the services producer price index, and 5.9% uses other price indices: the consumer price index, the domestic and foreign producer price indices, the agricultural producer price index and the construction cost index. The index itself is a chain-linked Laspeyres index weighted by national-accounts value added, with 2021 weights in the base year and previous-year weights in later years, which keeps the weights from drifting far from the economy.

The series starts in January 2017, so you can compare a month against the same month in earlier years rather than against a single reference point. And it covers six service sections, so it is broader than tourism and should not be read as a tourism indicator.

Where do accommodation and food services sit in the index?#

Accommodation and food services is one of six sections, NACE section I, and it contains restaurants, cafes and bars as well as hotels and other accommodation.

Because the line mixes hotels with food businesses, a rise in the line does not prove that hotels had a better month, and a fall does not prove they had a worse one. The line is a section-level aggregate: it carries no province, no star rating, no facility type and no single property.

Your own revenue can move against the line without anyone being wrong, because your mix of guests, channels and prices is not the section's mix. Section weights come from national-accounts value added, so the weight of the line in the index is not the same as its weight in your own market.

Volume or price: how does this differ from the producer price index?#

The production index removes price changes; the services producer price index measures them. One tells you whether more was sold, the other whether it sold for more.

Both come from the same statistical family and the same turnover data, but they answer opposite questions, so quoting one while meaning the other is the most common error in market paragraphs. The link between them is mechanical: 94.1% of the deflation of the production index uses the services producer price index, so a price surge can pull the volume index down even when the number of room-nights sold is unchanged.

For example, a hotel that raises room rates by 30% and sells 5% fewer room-nights can show falling revenue volume and rising revenue at the same time. Both statements are true and they describe different things.

Read the pair together. Volume up with price up is a different situation from volume down with price up, and the second usually means the market is absorbing less at the new price. When you write a market paragraph, name which of the two you are quoting, and give the publisher, the title and the date. For the price side, see our article on hotel prices in Türkiye's inflation data.

Adjusted or unadjusted: which comparison should you use?#

Use calendar-adjusted values for a year-on-year comparison and seasonally and calendar-adjusted values for a month-on-month one, which is exactly what TÜİK does.

Calendar adjustment removes the effect of working days and of holidays that move between years, such as Ramazan Bayramı and Kurban Bayramı. Seasonal adjustment removes the recurring pattern inside the year, so that a peak month is not automatically reported as growth. In a seasonal sector this matters: an unadjusted July-to-August comparison mixes the shape of the season with a real change in output.

The August 2026 release shows why the two must be kept apart: the overall index rose 2.3% on the year and 0.2% on the month, while accommodation and food services rose 2.0% on the year and fell 0.7% on the month (TÜİK, Hizmet Üretim Endeksi, Ağustos 2026 (opens in a new tab), 15 October 2026).

The rule for readers is simple: never compare a monthly change with an annual change, and never compare a seasonally adjusted figure with an unadjusted one. And one month is noise. Read three to six months of the same comparison before you describe a direction.

Why can the index and visitor counts move in different directions?#

They count different things: visitors are people crossing a border, nights are stays in certified facilities, and the index is deflated turnover of VAT-filing enterprises.

Coverage differs first. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism counts certified facilities, while the index covers every enterprise that files VAT return No. 1, including many small food businesses. The unit differs too: people, nights, and an index with 2021=100 are not interchangeable, and no arithmetic turns one into the other. Price treatment differs as well: the index removes prices, while visitor and night counts never involve money in the first place. Timing differs last: the index arrives in the middle of the second month after the reference month, while border and accommodation bulletins follow their own calendars, so the two are rarely read on the same day.

The 2026 picture is flat. H1 2026 visitors were 25,758,545, down 2.39% on a year earlier (Ministry of Culture and Tourism, August 2026 bulletin), which is a different statement from a volume index moving a point or two. For how the year reads as a whole, see Türkiye tourism 2026: reading a flat year in the official data. A divergence between the two series is therefore expected, not a contradiction, and it is a reason to read both rather than to pick a favourite.

What can a hotel use this line for, and what can it not?#

Use it as a background check on whether the section's volume is expanding or contracting; do not use it as a forecast for your own hotel or as an occupancy measure.

It is useful for one context sentence in a bank file or an owner report, provided the source, title and date travel with the number. It is not useful for occupancy: the index has no rooms, no beds and no capacity in it, so never turn it into an occupancy figure. It says nothing about your province, your star rating, your segment, your channel mix or your price position.

The one check worth doing: put the line next to your own revenue with price taken out. Take your room-nights sold, or divide revenue by your own average rate change, and compare the direction over the same months. If your volume falls while the line rises, the question is about your market, your channels or your segment, not about the economy.

When is the index published?#

Monthly, in the middle of the second month after the reference month, between the 13th and 17th in 2026, at 10:00, according to TÜİK's Ulusal Veri Yayımlama Takvimi, 2026. August 2026 data came out on 15 October 2026, September 2026 data are due on 13 November 2026 and October 2026 data on 15 December 2026. Each bulletin states the date of the next one, and the full official calendar is covered in the Türkiye tourism data calendar.

What to do next#

Open the latest bulletin, take the accommodation and food services line, and put it next to your own room-nights sold or deflated revenue for the same months. That single comparison separates a market story from your own story, and it is a use of this index a hotel can defend in front of an owner or a bank. For the longer view of how the sector sits in the economy, see reading the accommodation and food line in GDP.